Santa Clarita Valley’s Economic Outlook for 2023

When I talk to people, when I read and watch the news, I have to admit that I find the information about the economy confusing. We are having a “jobful recession.” Incomes are up while GDP is down. Business starts are up, but the market is down. Unemployment is down, inflation is up. People are taking part in the Great Retirement, the Great Resignation or maybe they are just quietly quitting. Maybe they are now finding the Great Regret! I’m not sure we’ve ever had so many new terms introduced to try to explain what’s going on.
Whatever we call it, we are in a time of economic transition, with further disruption and uncertainty ahead. It is critical that we understand the trends and dynamics at play and in them we find opportunities for our businesses and our community.
The 2022 Economic Outlook conference marked my 9th anniversary at the SCVEDC. We’ve come a long way in that time, and there has been a lot of change. For example:
• Our population has grown by 7.5% because we built over 6000 new homes (277,451–> 298,731)
• Meanwhile, our jobs base has grown by 13.5%. We built millions of square feet of new industrial, commercial, and retail space.
• We have nearly recovered all the jobs lost during the pandemic and our job creation rate is increasing. (83.0 –> 94.2)
• Total personal income has grown by roughly 50% (18.3B –> 27.6B)
• The unemployment rate dropped from 9.0 to its current level of 4.1
Considering there was a global pandemic, these numbers are pretty good! Take note from those numbers that the rate of job growth exceeded the rate of population growth.
The 2022 Economic Outlook event included global, national, and state perspectives, while focusing primarily on the trends and issues associated with the Santa Clarita Valley. The event kicked off with a panel discussion from prominent business leaders Ana Fonseca (Logix), John Prabhu (LA North Studios), and Nate Patena (DrinkPAK, LLC), with Todd Stevens (Black Knight Energy) moderating. Following the panel was economist Dr. Mark Schniepp of California Economic Forecast, who has been keeping a close eye on the rapidly evolving economic impacts of inflation, supply chain restraints, labor force, and more. Both the panel and Dr. Schniepp spoke about the labor force as a continued principal challenge.
Dr. Schniepp stated how the labor market in 2022 is strong, but there is rising uncertainty that employment will be impacted by the looming recession that could arrive before the year’s end. Santa Clarita Valley residents, however, have returned to the workforce in 2022 and new labor force entrants in 2023 will create more opportunities for companies to fill job positions faster. In fact, we’ve had complete recovery of jobs in those local industries that were hit the hardest by the pandemic, such as hospitality, leisure accommodation, vacation/travel, and more. Rising job counts almost always imply that (1) the demand for production is increasing and firms, therefore, need more capital, labor, or both to meet that demand, or (2) the region is attracting more businesses who employ local workers or a new in-migrating population of workers.
If you missed the event visit www.scvedc.org/outlook to download the full Economic Outlook report and Dr. Schniepp’s presentation slides. 

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